World Orthodoxy’s “Massive American Growth” is Somewhat Misleading: Study

(NFTU) A new article on orthochristian.com is claiming unprecedented growth in Assembly-led Orthodoxy, citing a study pointing out that the increase in converts nearly doubled in 2022 and part of 2023 versus the previous six years. The study, coming from Houston-based St Constantine College’s Orthodox Studies Institute and authored by Matthew Namee, Fr. Nicholas Metrakos, Cassidy Irwin, Nathanael Morgan, and Paisios Hensersky, analyzed data from 20 parishes across six Orthodox jurisdictions in 15 states with data from 2013-2023. As the data treated from 2023 was incomplete, it was included with 2022 data.

While the above can all be strictly labelled true, some problems remain, most notably that nationwide among six jurisdictions (the study doesn’t identify which) there were a total of 180 converts, averaging 9 converts (both receptions by chrismation and baptism are individually recognized) per parish. To complicate these numbers further, the study notes that the 2022 numbers are double the previous average between 2013 to 2019, with a precipitous drop in 2020 (presumably due to COVID restrictions and their after-effects), which would mean that the parishes were average 4-5 converts per year. Of these, just under 20% of receptions were for marriage or family reasons.

Because the jurisdictions in question are not listed, it is impossible to know whether ROCOR-MP (which is technically not part of the assembly) is included, where the most noticeable growth seems to be taking place. If such were the case, however, it would mean that ROCOR-MP is basically carrying the water for “canonical” Orthodoxy and that these anemic numbers might actually average lower across the other five jurisdictions. As we have no way of knowing as the numbers are not broken down by jurisdiction, however, this is a speculative analysis.

One thing the study does note, however, is that receptions by baptism from Protestantism and Catholicism are becoming more dominant in practice, which means that the previous ecumenical policy in SCOBA (the predecessor body to the Assembly of Bishops) of simply chrismating Catholics and Protestants– as was more common in the second half of the 20th century– is becoming increasingly outdated.